The Climate Prediction Center recently updated its forecast for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), predicting a 60% chance of a “weak and short” La Niña between November and March. While last winter was marked by El Niño conditions, La Niñas are far from unusual. In fact, according to meteorologist Michelle L’Heureux from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there were three consecutive La Niña winters from 2020 to 2023. This latest prediction raises questions about what the upcoming winter might hold.
El Niño and La Niña refer to recurring climate patterns influenced by the temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. La Niña is known as the cooler phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with cooler ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. These temperature shifts drive global weather patterns, influencing the jet stream, storm paths, and overall temperature and precipitation patterns across different regions. According to atmospheric scientist Emily Becker from the University of Miami, these changes can have significant impacts on weather conditions globally, and especially across the United States.
For those living in the northern regions of the U.S., a La Niña winter often means wetter conditions. The Northeast, Pacific Northwest, and the Midwest should brace for a winter with more rain and snow than usual. Meanwhile, the southern states should expect a drier winter. This weather shift tends to follow the typical patterns associated with La Niña, though the impact may be felt differently across various regions.
One aspect that complicates these weather predictions is the influence of climate change. Larry O’Neill, the state climatologist for Oregon, has pointed out that while La Niña winters in the Pacific Northwest were historically cooler, the region has been experiencing warmer-than-usual conditions during both La Niña and El Niño events in recent years. This deviation from the historical norm is attributed to the broader impacts of global warming, which appears to be altering long-established weather trends.
In short, while the upcoming La Niña is expected to follow familiar patterns of wetter northern winters and drier conditions in the South, climate change has added a new layer of unpredictability. Warmer-than-average winters, even during La Niña, may now become more of the rule than the exception. How this will affect the U.S. as a whole remains to be seen, but it’s clear that traditional weather patterns are increasingly being disrupted.
